Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.237397 2.362194 2.497304 2.655836 2.838647 3.045318 3.300403
2025-09-21 2.098223 2.255195 2.432456 2.651006 2.918655 3.243912 3.683711
2025-09-28 1.978624 2.150218 2.349204 2.602648 2.926210 3.340905 3.944102
2025-10-05 1.936148 2.128060 2.356871 2.658748 3.062707 3.614533 4.497245
2025-10-12 1.912665 2.124593 2.383998 2.738274 3.235847 3.964831 5.273846
2025-10-19 1.854798 2.073730 2.346125 2.726461 3.278112 4.127198 5.795516
2025-10-26 1.811001 2.037229 2.323132 2.731040 3.342175 4.333178 6.494793
2025-11-02 1.751282 1.977013 2.264880 2.680846 3.316381 4.381319 6.876460
2025-11-09 1.707930 1.935689 2.229107 2.659284 3.331665 4.503701 7.517791
2025-11-16 1.670842 1.900699 2.199688 2.644180 3.354645 4.643942 8.324707
2025-11-23 1.635956 1.867044 2.170181 2.626444 3.370644 4.773231 9.237913
2025-11-30 1.615658 1.851705 2.164810 2.643928 3.447346 5.045583 11.128749
2025-12-07 1.560114 1.788741 2.092312 2.557553 3.339736 4.903884 10.972035
2025-12-14 1.534450 1.765005 2.073760 2.553082 3.376998 5.101374 13.140966
2025-12-21 1.497959 1.725435 2.031195 2.508547 3.337194 5.108036 14.206055
2025-12-28 1.493116 1.728497 2.049142 2.560165 3.480552 5.615499 24.023679
2026-01-04 1.494394 1.739771 2.079152 2.633158 3.676344 6.372960 NaN
2026-01-11 1.472231 1.717743 2.059341 2.622320 3.701947 6.629795 NaN
2026-01-18 1.455355 1.702538 2.048940 2.626513 3.759516 7.030926 NaN
2026-01-25 1.426101 1.669185 2.010326 2.580446 3.703958 6.990823 NaN
2026-02-01 1.405025 1.646861 1.987576 2.560629 3.704352 7.177600 NaN
2026-02-08 1.386458 1.627617 1.968825 2.546737 3.716545 7.425493 NaN
2026-02-15 1.368113 1.608248 1.949266 2.530416 3.721621 7.652103 NaN